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Anvil · for players3 min read

Drop odds, luck and records

Anvil can tell you how rare a drop is, how long it usually takes and how lucky you have been. It can also remember your best days. This page explains the numbers.

Rates come from the OSRS WikiLuck expected kills against your real onesRecords include history from when Anvil started tracking you
Step 1

The odds on a drop tile

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Open a drop tile and you see up to eight lines, one per item that has known odds. A line looks like this:

Item: 1 in 512 from Boss · ~512 kills ≈ 9.4 h at 55/h

If the item can be rolled more than once per kill, it also says (×2 rolls). If Anvil doesn’t know how fast people kill that boss, the hours part is left out.

1 in Nthe chance of the drop on one kill, from the source that is quickest to get it.
Expected killsthe average number of kills it takes. It is worked out from the odds and the number of rolls.
Hoursexpected kills divided by how many kills an hour people usually manage. It is a guide, not a promise.
Average, not a limit

Half of all players get it before the expected kills, and some need far more. Use it to judge how big a tile is, not to say when it will land.

Step 2

Luck: spooned, dry or on rate

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Luck compares the kills you have done with the kills it should take. If you have the drop in fewer kills than expected, you are spooned. If you have done a lot of kills and still have nothing, you are dry. In between, you are on rate.

Anvil marks you dry or spooned only when it is unusual: about a one in twenty chance or rarer. It shows how many you have against how many were expected, and how far ahead or owed you are.

The Luck tab on the Members page lists the driest and luckiest people in your clan. Plugin posts for rare drops can also carry a luck line, such as a top percentage or how many players would have had it by now.

Step 3

Where the numbers come from

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Drop rates come from the OSRS Wiki and are refreshed every day. Kill rates for the hours come from the Wiki’s money-making guides. Where a rate is a careful estimate, Anvil treats it as one.

If a rate looks wrong, the Wiki is the place to fix it. Anvil picks up the change.

Step 4

Records and efficient hours

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Anvil keeps your best day, week, month and year for skill XP, boss kills and efficient hours. Days are UTC and weeks start on Monday.

Records go back to when Anvil started tracking your account: the first time you open them, Anvil fills them in from your daily history, then keeps them up to date. A record only changes when you beat your old best.

You see your own on your character’s page, under Records. Your clan’s record holders are on Members → Records.

Efficient hours played is how long your gains would take at good training methods, so a fast skill and a slow one can be compared. Efficient hours bossed does the same for kills. The rates come from the OSRS Wiki, and ironman accounts use their own rates.

Your own pages are in Your profile, Wrapped and Compare. Switches are in Settings, page by page.

Stuck, or something looks wrong? Ask in the Anvil support Discord